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DOI: 10.15862/04SATS218 (https://doi.org/10.15862/04SATS218)

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Bazhanov A.P., Saksonova E.S., Kochetkov A.V., Shchegoleva N.V. The method of carrying out heuristic procedures in the selection and justification of the composition of the determining indicators of the quality of coatings that affect the reliability of roads. Statistical processing and formation of expert survey results. Russian Journal of Transport Engineering. 2018; 5(2). Available at: https://t-s.today/PDF/04SATS218.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/04SATS218

The method of carrying out heuristic procedures in the selection and justification of the composition of the determining indicators of the quality of coatings that affect the reliability of roads. Statistical processing and formation of expert survey results

Bazhanov Anatoly Pavlovich
Penza state university of architecture and construction, Penza, Russia
E-mail: bajan_p@mail.ru

Saksonova Elena Stepanovna
Penza state university of architecture and construction, Penza, Russia
E-mail: bajan_p@mail.ru

Kochetkov Andrey Viktorovich
Perm national research polytechnical university, Perm, Russia
E-mail: soni.81@mail.ru

Shchegoleva Natalya Vyacheslavovna
Saratov state technical university of Gagarin Yu.A., Volgograd, Russia
E-mail: shegoleva123@mail.ru

Abstract. The article analyzes the application of one of the known solutions to the task of carrying out a heuristic procedure implemented on Delphi’s approach, by choosing and justifying the determining indicators of the quality of road surface coverings that affect some generalized indicator of their reliability. The authors set out an assessment of the stages of performing heuristic procedures for statistical processing of the results of an expert survey and the formation of its results. For statistical processing of the results of heuristic procedures, a unified initial matrix of expert assessments was proposed, an algorithm for processing the results of the selection of a subgroup of experts with a close opinion was developed, including the need for an expert evaluation of the rank type. Based on the use of dispersion analysis, the authors made a statistical assessment of the significance of the differences in the distribution of the quality indices of road surface coverings affecting some generalized index of their reliability, the structure of their influence was determined, while the characteristics having a significant and insignificant difference in distributions were assigned according to the degree of their influence to different groups. When using this approach, it was established that the significance of differences in the estimation of the distribution of road surface quality indicators affecting some generalized indicator of their reliability can be leveled, with an estimate of the difference in mean values of ranks. Comparison of the evaluation of indicators that have an insignificant difference in the average values of ranks assigned to one group, with an estimate for the indicators for the average degree of influence attributed to another group, showed their practical unambiguity.

Keywords: heuristic procedures; the Delphi technique; Expert’s competence; matrix of reduced estimates; coefficient of concord; grade of the quality index of road coverings; affecting the indicators of their reliability

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