Russian Journal of Transport Engineering
Russian journal of transport engineering
           

2016, Vol. 3, No. 3. - go to content...

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DOI: 10.15862/02TS316 (https://doi.org/10.15862/02TS316)

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Stolyarov V.V., Shchegoleva N.V. [Some historical boundaries of developing risk theory (from initiation down to our days)] Russian Journal of Transport Engineering, 2016, Vol. 3, No. 3. Available at: https://t-s.today/PDF/02TS316.pdf (in Russian). DOI: 10.15862/02TS316


Some historical boundaries of developing risk theory (from initiation down to our days)

Stolyarov Viktor Vasilevich
Yuri Gagarin state technical university of Saratov, Russia, Saratov
E-mail: stolyarov_v_v@mail.ru

Shchegoleva Natalia Vyacheslavovna
Yuri Gagarin state technical university of Saratov, Russia, Saratov
E-mail: Shegoleva123@mail.ru

Abstract. This article gives a historical overview of developing risk theory in comparison with the stages of developing theory of reliability, both abroad and in our country (in the USSR and the Russian Federation). The basic directions of the risk assessment and research in all fields of human activity are shown. The authors named the significant stages of developing these theories with reference to the countries, where someone or other results of their formation were achieved. The special attention is given to the authors of the various directions of risk theory and reliability one, and at the same time the contribution of domestic scientists is shown at the stages of the initiation of both sciences. It is chronologically demonstrated that the theory of risk appeared well after theory of reliability. Analysis of the risk theory development was carried out essentially for the first time and it was made in connection with the appearance of works freely interpreting the stages of the risk theory formation which is unacceptable in relation to their authors.

Keywords: safety; theory of reliability; theory of risk; refusal; quantitative value of hazard; Laplace function; integral function of normal law; critical parameters; parameters and types of a limit state

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ISSN 2413-9807 (Online)

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